Who will be this year’s supporting Cinderella-Buster story? After examining the field of the 2006 NCAA Tournament, I found my most likely candidates. It’s generally a safe bet that a 12th place will beat a 5, but on the field of this year’s tournament, the most likely pick seems to be a 13 over 4. The only 12 who has a chance to beat a 5 it’s texas. A&M due to Syracuse’s lack of depth and reliance on Gerry McNamara to do everything. If they have an offside game, Orange could go down, but I think they will play their Big East Conference Tournament at the top of the first round.
By remaining in the Atlantic, Iona, the 13th seed, is a likely candidate to eliminate LSU from the tournament. Iona is comfortable on the road, in large part because they are an experienced team coming back with 4 starters, and their 15-3 record on the road this season proves it. A win for Iona would show on the big stage that the smaller conference schools are catching up with the Major Leagues, which seems to be becoming more apparent with each season. It would also prove that the SEC was the weakest Major conference in the country this season. If Iona beats LSU, they will have a great chance to reach the Sweet 16 with a win over Syracuse.
Another 13 seed that has enjoyed some tournament success in recent years is Universidad del Pacífico. Coach Bob Thomason’s team will face one of the hottest teams in the country at Boston College, but I don’t expect them to go away easily. This could be the biggest surprise of the first round, as Pacific has been great away from Stockton, posting a 12-4 record, and they are reaching their first round winners of 12 of their last 13. This may be. not be the highest gambling percentage. as Boston College is a Final Four caliber team. But Pacific’s greats have the ability to walk away from the basket and will pose matchup problems for the Eagles. The Tigers could be a big hit in 2006, as some have the Eagles coming out of the Minneapolis region.
The story last year was that the top 7 seeds West Virginia Mountaineers made it to Elite 8 before falling to Louisville, and it is very possible that it will be again this season. Although they are not the Cinderella team they were last year, they slipped down to a 6th spot due to some losses late in conference after starting the red-hot Big East game. Pittsnoggle’s ability to play both inside and outside with his 6’11 ” build is one of the toughest matchups for any team in the tournament. Gansey can do it all and he showed he rose to the occasion in the big games in last year’s race. Iowa is a solid team that West Virginia will have to deal with in the second round, but 7-foot Iowa Big 10 defensive player of the year Erik Hansen won’t be able to defend Pittsnoggle 20 feet from the basket. The Hawkeyes may have to protect him with Greg Brunner, who will give up 4 inches. Due to matchmaking issues, the Hawkeyes may be forced to play in the zone, which could receive an onslaught of 3-pointers from the Mountaineers, which is what they do best. Texas will be West Virginia’s likely third-round opponent if they beat Iowa. They’re big, talented, and athletic, but susceptible.
They were crushed by Oklahoma State, lost to 12th seed Texas A&M, and Kansas beat them by double digits in the Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship game. Duke will likely be West Virginia’s Elite 8 showdown if the Mountaineers can get back there. again this season. As the season has unfolded, both teams have looked more and more human. It could be costly for the Blue Devils to have to play with 2 freshmen for many minutes. Point guard Greg Paulus will have the world’s wait on his shoulders trying to handle top seed Blue Devils as a rookie. I like West Virginia’s chances against both teams because of their experience in the NCAA tournament last season and their preparation playing in the nation’s Elite basketball conference this year.
Be sure to keep these things in mind as you fill out your 2006 Tournament draw.
