Do you believe in Auburn?
Do you think that in the troubled Southeastern Conference, a team can go undefeated in 2006, then win the SEC title game in Atlanta, to play in the BCS championship game? Can a team beat LSU, Florida and Georgia in the same year, and then fight for a possible rematch (or date with Tennessee) for all the marbles?
Your answer to that question may have been heavily influenced by Auburn’s performance last Thursday night in South Carolina. Favored by 13, the Tigers struggled to hold off the Gamecocks (to coin a phrase), nearly blowing a 24-10 lead before stopping Steve Spurrier’s troops, 24-17, at Auburn 6 with less than 20 seconds left. for playing. RB Kenny Irons was great, rushing for 117 yards and two touchdowns, and quarterback Brandon Cox did the keeper thing, not turning the ball over as he completed 13 of 19 passes. But the Tigers’ pass defense was shaky, allowing South Carolina wide receiver Kenny McKinley to open up again and again, to the tune of eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. Auburn had been a top 20 pass defense, but the tight coverage he showed against LSU was missing at Columbia last week.
So this weekend, Auburn gets what is supposed to be relative respite: a home game against the extremely young Arkansas Razorbacks. Irons is a Heisman candidate, and Arkansas ranks 100th in Division IA to stop the race. The Razorback’s running game is pretty strong on its own: Sophomore Darren McFadden has two 100-plus-yard rushing games so far this year and will play on Sundays one day, and certainly Houston Nutt will try to keep the ball away. of Irons & Co. for at least as long as possible. Do Cox and his receivers, primarily junior Courtney Taylor and sophomore Rodgeriqus Smith, have enough firepower to cover a big lead in a conference game?
In a word: yes. Auburn has covered three straight seasons against the Razorbacks and has every matchup going for them. Irons won’t take his foot off the gas if he wants to keep up with Ohio State’s Troy Smith for the Heisman. As I mentioned, Arkansas’ run defense has struggled against the likes of Alabama and Vanderbilt; Auburn’s ground attack is in a completely different stratosphere. And the Hogs want to run like crazy, too (they average 5.6 yards per carry), but Auburn only allows 2.4 yards per carry, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. There is simply no comparison between these defenses in terms of size and speed.
The trends also mostly favor the Tigers. Auburn is 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 overall. He is also 7-2 ATS in his last nine home games, 23-9-1 ATS in his last 33 conference games and 5-1 ATS in his last six games in which he was favored by 10.5 or more points. In other words: when this team is the favorite to win big, it wins big. Arkansas is 0-4 ATS in its last four games (all this year) and 2-7 ATS in the weeks after a straight win. True, the Hogs are also 3-0 ATS in their last few games in which they’ve been underdogs by 10.5 points or worse, so they historically know how to keep blowout wannabes close. But my problem is that the Arkansas teams that did that have already graduated; This year’s team, led by a freshman quarterback named Mitch Mustain, is extremely green, and it showed when the team was decimated by USC (at home), 50-14 as a 7.5-point underdog. Of course, Auburn doesn’t shoot like SC does, but I don’t think it matters, because the Razorbacks won’t be able to stop Irons. I’m sticking with Auburn (-15.5) as host to Arkansas, and I hope the Tigers aren’t thinking about their big matchup with Florida next week.
Last week: another Saturday night with no sweat. I had Houston, getting 17 points, in Miami, and the Hurricanes struggled to win the game, let alone beat the Cougars by 17. In the end, Miami was able to get the game out, but only by a score of 14-13. So another easy cover, which does not cause ulcers for us. For the year, we are now 4-1 against the fringe and on a four-week winning streak.
